Amid reports of third wave of COVID-19 hitting India in the coming months a new study by a team of researchers at IIT Kanpur has said that third wave is likely to show its effects in India by September to October.
“There is a significant anxiety among policy makers and public about the third wave. For the same, using SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave. We assume that India is fully unlocked on 15 July. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal): Third wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September). Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict social distancing. Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave,” said the IIT Kanpur study done by Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma.
It is to be noted that the impact of second wave has decreased significantly across the country except in some Northeast states (Mizoram, Manipur, Sikkim etc.), according to an assessment from the IIT Kanpur team.
The study also says that positivity rate in most of the states is less than 5% but Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya are still recording a positivity rate of over 10%.
“India’s average daily case count has reduced significantly. As on 19 June, it is 63,000 compared the peak of about 4 lakhs. Most states have daily Test Positivity Rate(TPR) less than WHO recommended level (5%). However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya still have high daily TPR (>10%),” a press statement said.
“At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. The revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out,” it added.
Source: dnaindia.com