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COVID-19: What are four elements that lead to formation of new pandemic waves? Know here

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New Delhi: Amid reports of the third wave of COVID-19 to hit India in the coming weeks, the NITI Aayog on Tuesday (June 22, 2021) commented on the four elements that lead to the formation of new pandemic waves. 

During a Union Health Ministry’s media briefing on COVID-19, Dr VK Paul, Member (Health), NITI Aayog, explained the reasons behind the emergence of new pandemic waves and how they can be controlled or avoided. 

Why do new waves happen?

The NITI Aayog Member listed four elements that lead to the formation of a new wave namely – Behaviour of the virus, Susceptible host, Transmissibility and Opportunity.

Behaviour of the virus: The virus has the capacity and ability to spread.

Susceptible host: The virus keeps looking for susceptible hosts for it to survive. So, if people are not protected either via vaccination or by the previous infection, then they are a susceptible host.

Transmissibility: The virus can become smart enough where it mutates and becomes more transmissible. The same virus which used to infect three hosts becomes capable of infecting 13. This factor is unpredictable and no one can pre-plan to fight such mutations. The change of the very nature of the virus and its transmissibility is an X factor and no one can predict when and where it may happen.

Opportunity: Opportunities which people give to the virus to infect. If people sit and eat together, crowd, sit in closed areas without masks, then the virus gets more opportunities to spread.

Dr Paul said that out of the above four, two elements – ‘Susceptibility and Opportunities’ for infection are totally under our control, whereas, the other two – ‘Behaviour of the virus and Transmissibility’, cannot be predicted or controlled. 

“So, if we are protected and ensure we are not susceptible, then the virus will not be able to survive. We can control the susceptibility by wearing a mask or getting vaccinated. Hence if we decrease opportunities by following COVID Appropriate behaviour and decrease susceptibility to infection, then a third wave will not occur,” he said.

The NITI Aayog Member stated that there are countries where even the second wave of COVID-19 has not occurred. 

“If we do what is required and do not indulge in irresponsible behaviour, then outbreak should not occur. This is a simple epidemiological principle,” Dr Paul said.

When should schools reopen? 

Dr Paul also commented on easing restrictions and reopening of schools and said that the decision has to be taken cautiously. He stated that we should take risks only when we are protected. 

He said, “School is a crowd, a medium or large gathering, which gives an opportunity for the virus to infect. So, we should take that risk only when we are rather better protected, the virus is suppressed and we are able to sit at a distance. But it is not easy to take this decision to open schools when an unpredictable situation is prevalent.” 

ALSO READ | Fast COVID-19 vaccination key to go back to normal, says NITI Aayog’s Dr VK Paul
 

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Source: Zee News