With numerous allies to accommodate this time, the DMK may have to forego seats at its own risk.
Past differences are buried, old foes turn friends and unlikely matches are made all in the name of electoral alliances. As assembly elections draw closer in Tamil Nadu, it appears that the battle, this time as well, will largely be between the two Dravidian majors, with smaller parties choosing a side.
Alliances sealed ahead of the 2019 Parliamentary Elections will more or less remain intact, at least as far as the DMK is concerned. This means that the DMK will likely go into the 2021 polls with Congress, VCK, MDMK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML, MDMK, MMK, IJK and KDMK. In addition, there is speculation that the PMK and MJK, both allies of the AIADMK, may jump ship to the DMK, while an invite to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM for a recent conference had caused disgruntlement in the opposition camp.
dmkSpeaking to TNM, DMK leader and Rajya Sabha MP TKS Elangovan said, “We haven’t started seat sharing talks yet. But this time we will try to convince them. What will happen if the allies get more seats and the AIADMK makes use of that situation and targets the alliance seats instead of DMK seats.”
While the DMK had contested in 176 out of the 232 seats in the Assembly last time, Elangovan admitted that his party needed to stand in more seats in 2021. “The numbers aren’t decided yet. But we will convince our allies that we have to contest more number of seats. The seat-sharing talks haven’t started,” he said.
Political analysts point out that the 2021 election scenario is far different from 2016, and not just because leaders like Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi are no more. The rise of the BJP in Tamil Nadu, they said, poses a greater threat to the DMK and its allies and it is for this reason that it will have to stand together.
“The politics now has become focussed on how to arrest the BJP’s growth,” said P Ramajayam, a professor and political analyst based in Trichy. As a consequence, he argued, the DMK’s allies may not be as adamant as 2016. “Because the politics of the BJP plays an important role, DMK’s allies may not be so particular. There will be problems of bargaining and number of seats and constituencies, but this time it won’t be an issue for the DMK. And moreover, the Congress and other parties have understand this,” he reasoned.
Semmalar Selvi, a professor and social activist in Chennai pointed to the 2016 scenario when the Makkal Nala Kootani comprising the VCK, MDMK, Left parties together with the DMDK played a significant role in cutting the opposition votes. DMDK chief Vijayakant had chosen to tie-up with Makkal Nala Kootani after alliance talks failed with the DMK. “The DMK has to work out a strategy with allies. They lost the last time. They could have given more democratic space for alliances, then there wouldn’t have been this Makkal Nala Kootani,” she observed.
But the number of seats and constituencies may not be the only thorn during alliance talks. Parties like the VCK and the MDMK have demanded that they contest on their own symbol as opposed to the DMK’s rising sun symbol. In 2019, the VCK’s Ravikumar and MDMK’s Ganesha Murthy had successfully contested on the DMK symbol.
DMK’s TKS Elangovan, however, said that the matter will be sorted out and the priority for the alliance remains removing the AIADMK from power. “It is their right (to contest on their symbol). They have already contested on their own symbol. Sometimes they contest our symbol. They want recognition. So their blame is not against the DMK. But they want to get the recognition of the Election Commission of India (ECI). We will sit and sort it out,” said the DMK leader.
But it’s not just ECI recognition alone, both parties may not want to be constrained by alliance politics in the future, especially on issues where a whip applies in the state Assembly, pointed out both Semmalar and Ramajayam.
“All smaller parties would like to register their symbol in people’s minds and so they want to maintain their own identity. They may also fear that in the future if there is a problem they shouldn’t be locked into these constitutional issues. Once they contest in the major party symbol, they cannot raise issues of their party in the alliance,” noted Ramajayam.
“Jayalalithaa also did the same thing the previous time, Thaniyarasu and others contested on the AIADMK symbol. Stalin is facing the election without his father, he has to be strategic and take note of all the sensitive issues that other parties are demanding just for the sake of winning elections,” said Semmalar.
Source: The News Minute