Coronavirus
Being informed is good but make sure you’ve understood what you’ve read correctly.
The only thing on the news these days is the coronavirus pandemic with the media continuously reporting on the increase in cases. However, not many understand how to interpret the data.
India is currently in the process of ramping up tests. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), on April 2 alone, 7,900 tests for coronavirus were carried out. This was the highest number of samples tested in a single day in India. As was only to be expected, there was a big jump in the number of positive cases.
However, those who are not aware of the increase in tests might be alarmed and assume that the virus is spreading at an accelerated rate than before. When you look at coronavirus news, here are five tips you can follow to make sure you understand the information correctly:
1. Look at total number of tests done: Each state in India has done a different number of tests. Not surprisingly, Maharashtra, Kerala and Rajasthan have done the most number of tests so far. As on April 3, Maharashtra had tested 10,873 samples while Kerala had tested 8,456 samples and Rajasthan 5254 samples. So far, Maharashtra has reported 423 cases, Kerala has 286 cases and Rajasthan has 113 cases. For weeks, Kerala was at the top of the table for the number of positive cases while Maharashtra was second. Several media headlines and reports termed the states as ‘worst hit by coronavirus’, without checking how many tests other states had done. With testing being ramped up in other states, their numbers too are changing – currently, Maharashtra is No.1, followed by Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Kerala.
2. Look at number of tests done per million: Just looking at the total number of tests done also does not give a true picture. One has to compare the number of tests with the size of the population. Although Maharashtra has currently done more tests than Kerala, it is the south Indian state which has done more tests per million of the population. While the population of Maharashtra is over 12 crores (120 million), Kerala is a much smaller state with a population of around 3.6 crores (36 million). This means that Kerala is covering more people per million of the population than Maharashtra. If we calculate tests done per million, Maharashtra is around 90 persons per million (10873/120) while Kerala is around 235 persons per million (8456/36).
Read: Data: How Delhi, Maharashtra and south Indian states have been testing for COVID-19
3. Calculate the death and recovery rate percentages: It is inevitable that some people who have been diagnosed positive for the coronavirus will die. However, it is important to check if the percentage of deaths is going up, down or if it has remained constant. If 100 people have been diagnosed as positive and 2 die, the death rate is 2 percent. If an additional 100 people test positive for coronavirus and 1 more person dies, the death rate is 1.5 percent (3/200*100). The headline may scream – ‘One more COVID-19 death’ but it does not convey the real picture. The death rate in India is currently 2.7 percent (73 out of 2,640 cases) which is below the global death rate of 5.2 percent (53,458 out of 1,021,037* cases).
4. Be aware that data collection varies from country to country: Since the coronavirus pandemic has spread to nearly every country in the world, it is tempting to compare data from everywhere and draw comparisons to what’s happening in India. However, be aware that countries have different standards for recording cases. As this BBC article explains, some countries record a fatality if the person tested positive for COVID-19 and died. Others look at whether the death was caused by COVID-19 and not other pre-existing conditions. In the UK, the Department of Health and Social Care gives out updates every day on how many positive cases died, and this includes those who may have died from some other condition, say like cancer.
However, in the US, doctors are asked to use their discretion to decide if the death was caused by COVID-19 or other conditions, even if it’s ultimately recorded as a coronavirus death. Though the death is counted for now, the data may vary when analysed a few months down the line.
It gets even more complex when a person who’s suspected to have coronavirus dies of some other pre-existing condition — should they be counted or not? During a pandemic, doctors will probably record the death as caused by COVID-19 even if the patient had only a mild case of it and the actual cause was their other condition. This is especially relevant to COVID-19 because it is persons with pre-existing conditions who are considered to be high risk.
The number of cases per country also varies depending on how the country is testing — are they doing randomised tests or are only symptomatic people being tested? Several people who have tested positive for the coronavirus have no symptoms at all and may thus never be counted as a positive case if their country is not doing aggressive testing. For instance, both India and Japan have been doing limited tests while South Korea has been following the World Health Organisation’s ‘test, test, test’ policy. While Japan and India have less than 3,000 reported cases, South Korea has 10,062 cases. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that South Korea has nearly three times the number of cases in Japan and India — it only means that the aggressive testing (they test nearly 15,000 people a day) has been catching asymptomatic and mild cases too.
5. Understand that detection is key: Expect that the number of positive cases in India will go up in the coming days. The virus is already here. To contain it, early detection is important. As mentioned, many cases are asymptomatic. In Maharashtra, according to the data put out by Health Minister Rajesh Tope on March 31, there were 178 active cases of coronavirus in the state then. Of this, 153 were asymptomatic (nearly 86 percent).
India is currently in the process of ramping up tests. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), on April 2 alone, 7,900 tests for coronavirus were carried out. This was the highest number of samples tested in a single day in India. As was only to be expected, there was a big jump in the number of positive cases.
However, those who are not aware of the increase in tests might be alarmed and assume that the virus is spreading at an accelerated rate than before. When you look at coronavirus news, here are five tips you can follow to make sure you understand the information correctly:
1. Look at total number of tests done: Each state in India has done a different number of tests. Not surprisingly, Maharashtra, Kerala and Rajasthan have done the most number of tests so far. As on April 3, Maharashtra had tested 10,873 samples while Kerala had tested 8,456 samples and Rajasthan 5254 samples. So far, Maharashtra has reported 423 cases, Kerala has 286 cases and Rajasthan has 113 cases. For weeks, Kerala was at the top of the table for the number of positive cases while Maharashtra was second. Several media headlines and reports termed the states as ‘worst hit by coronavirus’, without checking how many tests other states had done. With testing being ramped up in other states, their numbers too are changing – currently, Maharashtra is No.1, followed by Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Kerala.
2. Look at number of tests done per million: Just looking at the total number of tests done also does not give a true picture. One has to compare the number of tests with the size of the population. Although Maharashtra has currently done more tests than Kerala, it is the south Indian state which has done more tests per million of the population. While the population of Maharashtra is over 12 crores (120 million), Kerala is a much smaller state with a population of around 3.6 crores (36 million). This means that Kerala is covering more people per million of the population than Maharashtra. If we calculate tests done per million, Maharashtra is around 90 persons per million (10873/120) while Kerala is around 235 persons per million (8456/36).
Read: Data: How Delhi, Maharashtra and south Indian states have been testing for COVID-19
3. Calculate the death and recovery rate percentages: It is inevitable that some people who have been diagnosed positive for the coronavirus will die. However, it is important to check if the percentage of deaths is going up, down or if it has remained constant. If 100 people have been diagnosed as positive and 2 die, the death rate is 2 percent. If an additional 100 people test positive for coronavirus and 1 more person dies, the death rate is 1.5 percent (3/200*100). The headline may scream – ‘One more COVID-19 death’ but it does not convey the real picture. The death rate in India is currently 2.7 percent (73 out of 2,640 cases) which is below the global death rate of 5.2 percent (53,458 out of 1,021,037* cases).
4. Be aware that data collection varies from country to country: Since the coronavirus pandemic has spread to nearly every country in the world, it is tempting to compare data from everywhere and draw comparisons to what’s happening in India. However, be aware that countries have different standards for recording cases. As this BBC article explains, some countries record a fatality if the person tested positive for COVID-19 and died. Others look at whether the death was caused by COVID-19 and not other pre-existing conditions. In the UK, the Department of Health and Social Care gives out updates every day on how many positive cases died, and this includes those who may have died from some other condition, say like cancer.
However, in the US, doctors are asked to use their discretion to decide if the death was caused by COVID-19 or other conditions, even if it’s ultimately recorded as a coronavirus death. Though the death is counted for now, the data may vary when analysed a few months down the line.
It gets even more complex when a person who’s suspected to have coronavirus dies of some other pre-existing condition — should they be counted or not? During a pandemic, doctors will probably record the death as caused by COVID-19 even if the patient had only a mild case of it and the actual cause was their other condition. This is especially relevant to COVID-19 because it is persons with pre-existing conditions who are considered to be high risk.
The number of cases per country also varies depending on how the country is testing — are they doing randomised tests or are only symptomatic people being tested? Several people who have tested positive for the coronavirus have no symptoms at all and may thus never be counted as a positive case if their country is not doing aggressive testing. For instance, both India and Japan have been doing limited tests while South Korea has been following the World Health Organisation’s ‘test, test, test’ policy. While Japan and India have less than 3,000 reported cases, South Korea has 10,062 cases. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that South Korea has nearly three times the number of cases in Japan and India — it only means that the aggressive testing (they test nearly 15,000 people a day) has been catching asymptomatic and mild cases too.
5. Understand that detection is key: Expect that the number of positive cases in India will go up in the coming days. The virus is already here. To contain it, early detection is important. As mentioned, many cases are asymptomatic. In Maharashtra, according to the data put out by Health Minister Rajesh Tope on March 31, there were 178 active cases of coronavirus in the state then. Of this, 153 were asymptomatic (nearly 86 percent).
31st March 2020 @ 10 am
महाराष्ट्र राज्यात कोरोना बाधीत रुग्णांची संख्या 230 झाली आहे. यामध्ये मुंबई व ठाणे परिसर 122, पुणे 46,नागपूर 17,अहमदनगर 05, रत्नागिरी 01, औरंगाबाद 01,यवतमाळ 03, मिरज 25, सातारा 02, सिंधुदुर्ग 01, कोल्हापूर 02, जळगाव 01,बुलढाणा 03, नाशिक 01 असा तपशील आहे. pic.twitter.com/tiQlFND1Z1
— Rajesh Tope (@rajeshtope11) March 31, 2020
Even if asymptomatic or mild cases may not need hospitalisation, they can pass on the virus to more vulnerable people — like the elderly or those who have pre-existing conditions. That is why it is important to find out if someone is capable of transmitting the virus, even without their knowledge. Otherwise, we may suddenly see a rapid surge in the number of people who require hospitalisation, thereby overwhelming the healthcare system.
*Figures according to Worldometer
Body 2:
Source: TheNewsMinute.com