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DMK’s game plan for May 23: Prepares for post poll scenarios at Centre and state

In less than 24 hours, the state’s principle opposition party, the DMK, will know its fate in both the Parliament and the state assembly. The Dravidian major is hyper-aware that its performance would not only affect the UPA’s chances at the Centre but also decide the fate of the Tamil Nadu government. And as the party holds back to back meetings to discuss post poll strategy, it is aware that it has a crucial decisions to make in the coming days.

A DMK leader on the condition of anonymity told TNM that the party is highly confident that the UPA along with non-aligned parties will form the government at the centre. This despite multiple exit poll figure predicting that the BJP led NDA would win enough seats to comfortably stay in power.

“The exit poll figures are highly exaggerated. The way we look at it, the NDA will get around 220-230 seats. The UPA will get 180-190 seats and the non-aligned parties will win the rest,” says the DMK leader. “The BJP will not form government,” he adds.

DMK sources say that there are three scenarios currently being discussed by top leaders as far as the Lok Sabha polls are concerned. The ideal situation would be that the UPA forms government with the help of the non-aligned regional parties. The second scenario is that the Congress supports regional parties and together they decide on a non-Congress Prime Minister.

“We are open to the first two scenarios and have discussed them. We are ready to support this,” says the DMK source. “However the third scenario is that the BJP supports regional parties and a non-BJP leader becomes Prime Minister. This is something we are still discussing,” he adds.

Either way, the DMK sees itself as an important liaison to bring in the support of the non-aligned regional parties. In the past, M Karunanidhi had used his own influence and friendship with other regional parties to help form coalition governments at the centre. His son and DMK President MK Stalin too would look to play a similar role in the coming days.

“The President is directly in touch with Mamata Banerjee (TMC), Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and K Chandrasekhar Rao (TRS). Kanimozhi meanwhile is in touch with Jagan (YSRCP),” says the DMK source. “Our advantage is that we had erudite leaders as MPs in Delhi including Dayanidhi Maran, TR Baalu and Kanimozhi. They all have a good working relationship with leaders from other regional parties. The AIADMK MPs at the centre don’t enjoy the same kind of communication lines,” he adds. 

What about bye-polls?

While the Lok Sabha polls may have the attention of the rest of the country, in Tamil Nadu, the possibility of the AIADMK government being toppled looms large at the moment. In addition to the general elections, residents of the state also voted for bye-elections in 22 assembly constituencies. In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the ruling AIADMK has 113 members (including the Speaker), the DMK has 88, the Congress has 8, the IUML 1, and one Independent.

The AIADMK has to win five seats in the bye-elections to maintain the majority and if it wants to be safe against switching of camps by some lawmakers, they have to win seven or eight seats. On the other hand, the DMK front (88 members) has to win all 22 seats to take the tally along with its allies — Congress (eight members) and IUML (one member) — to 119, just one number over the simple majority.

“The ideal situation for us is to wait for a re-election and to be voted to power,” says a DMK source. “But the party is confident of getting at least 18 seats. If people vote for us in the Lok Sabha elections, it seems obvious that they will in the bye polls too,” he adds. 

Source: The News Minute