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Tamil Nadu bye-poll: India Today – Axis exit polls project only 3 seats for AIADMK

Even as the country waits with bated breath for May 23 to know which party will take control at the centre, in Tamil Nadu, there is twice as much the anxiety. The state in addition to voting in the General elections has also witnessed polls for 22 assembly seats. This means that the AIADMK would have to win in at least five assembly constituencies to maintain a simple majority. If they don’t, the government could be toppled.

The India Today-Axis Exit polls on the bye-elections have however painted a grim picture for the the ruling party. According to its prediction, the AIADMK is projected to win just three seats and the DMK will get 14 seats. The five other seats in contention have been termed a ‘tough fight’ by the pollsters.

In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the ruling AIADMK has 113 members (including the Speaker), the DMK has 88, the Congress has 8, the IUML 1, and one Independent.

The AIADMK has to win five seats in the bye-elections to maintain the majority and if it wants to be safe against switching of camps by some lawmakers, they have to win seven or eight seats. On the other hand, the DMK front (88 members) has to win all 22 seats to take the tally along with its allies — Congress (eight members) and IUML (one member) — to 119, just one number over the simple majority.

Speaking to TNM, DMK’s A Saravanan says, “We expect to win all 22. This is a small election and the trend among people is for a change in government. We believe we will sweep all the seats.”

Amongst the arguments made by the DMK is that if the party sweeps the Lok Sabha polls, it is likely they will win more seats in the assembly seats too.

Sitting on the channel’s debate panel, a defensive AIADMK Spokesperson Kovai Sathyen asked, “Assuming that these numbers are true, won’t there be a leadership tussle within the DMK? Won’t TTV Dhinakaran be seen as a traitor in the state?”

However, speaking to TNM, AIADMK Spokesperson Nirmala Periyasamy says, “Just wait for one more day. India Today’s exit polls from day one have been absurd, even the parliamentary exit polls. The ground reality here is different. The Chief Minister’s hard work will ensure our victory. Our main focus has been the bye-polls in the state. Even in the Lok Sabha, we will get a decent number of seats. Margin of votes maybe less, but definitely we are going to win a minimum of 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls and between 14 to 16 seats in the Assembly bye-polls.”

TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK is also a crucial player in these polls and three AIADMK legislators were issued show-cause notices by Speaker P.Dhanapal as the ruling party felt that they were moving towards Dhinakaran. However, the Supreme Court has stayed the disqualification proceedings against the three lawmakers.

Source: The News Minute