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Voters show exit door to Assembly election Exit polls: All predictions way off the mark

Exit poll results after every election are a topic of intense debate and discussions. The predictions by various agencies are helpful in determining the trend of voting in elections. On December 7, right after the voting ended for Assembly elections in five states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram – various channels gave their verdict on which party will bag the states that went to polls.  

However, all exit poll results announced last week for the just-concluded Assembly elections turned out to be way off the predictions. 

The only prediction that came close was in Madhya Pradesh where pollsters had claimed there would be a neck-and-neck battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. The poll numbers though were far from close. The Congress emerged as a single-largest party in the state with wins in 114 seats, BJP with 109, BSP in 2 and others in 5.

In Rajasthan, most pollsters had predicted a win for the Congress but none of them managed to come close to the victory margin. The Congress in 99 seats while the BJP bagged 73 seats. Bahujan Samaj Party won six, Bhartiya Tribal Party won two, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party three, the CPI(M) two and one went to the Rashtriya Lok Dal.

In Chhattisgarh, pollsters had divided the numbers in the state almost into half by giving 40 seats on an average to both the Congress and the BJP. None of the results in the exit polls came even close to the actual winning figures that were announced on Tuesday. The Raman Singh-government was unseated in the state with the Congress winning 68 seats and BJP winning just 15 and the JCC won 7 seats.

In Telangana, all exit polls had predicted that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) would emerge as teh single-largest party. While that came true, no one had expected that the Telugu Desam Party- Congress alliance would end up as a distant second. In the final tally, the TRS stood miles ahead of its competitors with 88 seats, Congress-led alliance won 21, the BJP one and others bagged 9 seats. 

In Mizoram too, the difference between the exit polls and the final results remained in the margin of win of the Mizo National Front. As opposed to the predictions of a tough fight between the Congress and the MNF, the latter emerged as a clear winner in the polls in the 40-member assembly. MNF won 26 seats, Congress 5, BJP one and Others 8 seats.

In the results of the Assembly polls, the Congress has emerged as a winner in three of the five states. BJP has conceded defeat and discussions within the Congress camp are now underway to appoint the next Chief Minister in these states. 

Source: Zee News